See Nigeria’s Chances Of Scaling World Banks 2.5% Forecast
The World Bank has forecast a 2.5% growth for Nigeria’s economy in 2018 and all seems well for the oil-rich nation to even grow beyond that level, a policy analyst said.
Dr. Boniface Chizea believes Nigeria stands a chance of going beyond the mark, but stressed that the nation must uphold some standards.
At a growth of 2.5% Nigerians will want to know how much impact this growth will have on their pockets and bank accounts.
The crude oil price increase, importation ban on 41 items and influx of investment in the capital market sector are few indices that are showing signs of greener pastures in 2018.
'It could go beyond 2.5% to 3%', Dr. Chizea said.
The chances of getting there are glaring, as he speaks with confidence, highlighting that a few policies of the government are already growing the economy.
But can these be sustained?
"The price of crude oil is on the increase, but even then you discover that we have been able to use the crisis of recession very well.
“To some extent, people don’t know to what extent the Central Bank of Nigeria had worked to ensure stability, particularly to the exchange rate.
"Those items, 41 of them, that were banned that people were asking for the head of the governor and the investors’ export charge window have more or less left the value of the Naira to the market forces.
“It has now led to more inflow of money - foreign investments - into Nigeria particularly in portfolio nature, with the capital market seeing indices it never expected” he explained.
One drawback to the growth, however, would be the budget passage, he, however emphasised.
There were earlier speculations that the budget would be passed before the end of 2017, but it was later shifted to 2018 January.
The policy analyst says it is glaring that the January schedule would never happen.
He said the delay would be a set back to capital expenditure that could add impetus to the growth projected.
"I do not see the possibility of passing the budget this January as speculated, but if it comes in the first quarter of the year, it is an improvement on what we had last year.
"If at this point in time, the ministries department and agencies of the government are still defending their budget, then the January target will be a pipe dream because as at last year, we had it ready in the middle of the year.
"Capital expenditure will not go on until you have the budget", he stressed.
Another tangible sign of economic growth is drop in inflation rate and Nigerians will want to see a single digit.
For an economy to grow fast, small businesses must have to spring up to create jobs and this depends on access to funds.
The Interest Rate has a link with the inflation and it has remained far beyond the reach of most Nigerians with good business ideas.
To have more businesses spring up in coming months, the policy analyst suggests the need for the government to plug leakages and sustain economic policies beyond press statements and executive orders.
Without the jobs, it is obvious a little impact would be felt with a 2.5% growth and Dr. Chizea concluded by saying that Nigeria’s economy needs to grow by at least 3% before it begins to impact directly on Iya Bose who sells Akara down the road.
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