Afrinvest Predicts Higher GDP Growth For Nigeria In 2019 If Atiku Wins
Investment banker, Afrinvest West Africa Limited has predicted a higher economic growth rate of 2.7% if opposition party, Peoples Democratic Party, PDP Presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar wins the February 16, 2019 elections.
On the contrary, Nigeria’s economy will only grow by 2.5% if incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari is re-elected for a second term.
In its 2018 economic review and 2019 forecast titled: “On the Precipice” presented before financial journalists on Thursday, Afrinvest projected three scenarios that are likely to play out in the economy depending on the outcome of the 2019 elections.
The first scenario sees the economy growing from current 1.9% to 2.5% if the elections are free and fair and President Buhari is reelected to continue his economic policies.
The second is a pessimistic scenario where irregularities mar the elections, violence breaks out across the country and economic conditions worsen plunging growth to an abysmal 1.0%.
In the third optimistic scenario, elections are free and fair, new government begins, there is economic reforms in oil & gas and the power sectors leading to a gross domestic product, GDP growth of 2.7% and a possible return to historic levels of economic growth over the medium term.
“Nigeria is currently at crossroads, and 2019 is a defining year considering the grim socio-political and economic developments in recent times.
“Since the 2015 elections, growth has persisted below the long term growth rate of 6-7.0%, the unemployment rate has more than doubled from 9.9% in Q3 2015 to 23.1% in Q3 2018 and insecurity has spread across all regions of the country. Furthermore, according to World Data Lab, the number of extremely poor people in the world can be found in Nigeria,” said Afrinvest Deputy Managing Director, Victor Ndukaub while presenting the report.
The report further noted that “the issues which plagued the Nigerian economy and market are storied and have been reflected by us through various publications.
"In our view, the country has come to a point where there needs to be a reset to set the country on the path of prosperity or the country faces a bleak future from which the path to recovery may extend through a generation”.
It further added: “We view the country as being “On the Precipice” because this point in history will determine the next cycle and could very well lock the country into a spiral if weak or contracting growth or lay the foundation upon which the country emerges to the high phase of growth only witnessed not so long ago. Hence, in many ways, our outlook for 2019 and for the medium term is dependent on the elections and the likely impact it would have on the overall economy.”
Don't forget to share this story with your friends.