So, the Central Bank of Nigeria on Monday released the results of its Consumer Expectations Survey for the third quarter of 2018.

One essential feature of the report is the consumers’ expectations on big ticket investment in the coming year.

According to the survey, “majority of consumers nationwide believe that the next 12 months would not be an ideal time to purchase big-ticket items like motor vehicle, house or land”.

“The overall buying conditions index for consumers in the current quarter for big ticket items stood at 35.1 points. This indicates that majority of consumers believed that the current quarter was not the ideal time to purchase big-ticket items like consumer durables, motor vehicles, and house & lot,” the CBN said in the report.

It added: “Overall buying intention index in the next twelve months stood at 46.4 index points, indicating that majority of consumers do not intend to buy these items in the next 12 months.

“The buying intention indices for motor vehicle and house & lot were below 50 points, indicating that respondents have no plans to purchase motor vehicles and houses in the next twelve months.

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“However, the index for consumer durables stood above 50, indicating that respondents have plans to purchase furniture, gas cooker and electronics in the next twelve months.”

This is despite overall outlook of consumers surveyed, expressing optimism in their outlook both within the current quarter and the next 12 months.

Most respondents also expected that the naira will appreciate, inflation rate to rise, while borrowing rate will fall in the next 12 months.

The major drivers of the expected upward movement in prices are: transportation, education, medical care, electricity, house rent, and telecommunications.

The Consumer Expectations Survey, CES for Q3 2018 was conducted during the period September 24 - October 4, 2018, covering a sample size of 1,770 household drawn from 207 Enumeration Areas (EAs) across the country, with a response rate of 96.9%.

So, who did the CBN talk to?

Well, it said it talked to people across several education categories and even those without any formal education.

Respondents’ distribution by educational attainment showed that 14.8% had university education, 14.8% had higher non-university education, while 26.8% had senior secondary school education.

Respondents with junior secondary and primary school education accounted for 6.8% and 18.9%, respectively, while those with no formal education accounted for the balance of 17.9%.

The consumer outlook for the next quarter and next 12 months were positive at 24.7 and 30.1 points, respectively.

See full report HERE.

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